Risk Monitor

The full Kintechs dataset, recalculated daily. Hover any chart for exact values.

Data as of –

Market risk · Kintechs Reference Portfolio

Model allocation of 50% BTC, 30% ETH and 20% USD stablecoins, rebalanced daily. VaR at 99% on 1-day and 10-day horizons: historical over a 250-day window and EWMA with λ = 0.94.

Historical VaR 1D
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EWMA VaR 1D
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Historical VaR 10D
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EWMA VaR 10D
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Breaches, 365d
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Max drawdown
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Daily returns vs VaR 99%
HistoricalEWMABreachSource: Coinbase; Kintechs calculations
Drawdown from peak 365 days
Running maximum of NAVSource: Coinbase; Kintechs calculations
Expected shortfall 97.5%, 1D
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Expected shortfall 97.5%, 10D
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Basel traffic light
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Breaches, 250d
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Kupiec p-value
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Christoffersen p-value
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Contribution to portfolio risk
Share of EWMA portfolio volatilitySource: Coinbase; Kintechs calculations
Liquidity-adjusted VaR, 1D
Portfolio sizeVaR 99%Exit costLVaR
Source: Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Binance; Kintechs calculations

Volatility and correlation

Realised volatility from daily log returns, annualised with √365. Correlation over the last 90 days.

30-day realised volatility
BTCETHSOLSource: Coinbase; Kintechs calculations
Return correlation
90-day PearsonSource: Coinbase; Kintechs calculations
Asset performance and volatility
AssetPrice7d30d90d1yVol 30dVol 90d
Source: Coinbase; Kintechs calculations

Liquidity · BTC order books

Estimated cost of a market sell, from walking the live bid side of each venue's order book. "Beyond book" means the order is larger than the depth the venue publishes.

Market sell slippage by order size
ConsolidatedCoinbaseKrakenOKXBinanceSource: Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Binance; Kintechs calculations
Venue liquidity
VenueSpreadBid depth 1%Ask depth 1%Bid share$1m sell$10m sell
Source: Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Binance; Kintechs calculations
ETH market sell slippage by order size
ConsolidatedCoinbaseKrakenOKXBinanceSource: Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Binance; Kintechs calculations
ETH venue liquidity
VenueSpreadBid depth 1%Ask depth 1%Bid share$1m sell$10m sell
Source: Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Binance; Kintechs calculations
Kintechs Liquidity Index: cost of exiting $10m BTC
Consolidated order book, dailySource: Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Binance; Kintechs calculations

Derivatives

Perpetual futures across OKX, Hyperliquid, Deribit and Kraken Futures; options and dated futures on Deribit. Full derivatives analytics →

BTC perp OI
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BTC funding, OI-weighted
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BTC DVOL
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BTC 3M basis, ann.
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BTC 30D 25Δ RR
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Options put/call OI
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BTC perpetual funding by venue annualised, 7-day average
OKXHyperliquidDeribitKraken FuturesSource: OKX, Hyperliquid, Deribit, Kraken Futures; Kintechs calculations
BTC implied vs realised volatility 365 days
Implied (DVOL)Realised 30dSource: Deribit, Coinbase; Kintechs calculations

Stablecoins

USD-pegged stablecoin supply, concentration by issuer, distribution across chains and deviation from the $1 peg.

Total supply
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Issuer HHI
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Largest issuer share
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Largest issuer 30d
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USD stablecoin supply
365 days, $bnSource: DefiLlama; Kintechs calculations
Supply by issuer
Share of USD supplySource: DefiLlama; Kintechs calculations
Supply by chain
Share of USD supplySource: DefiLlama; Kintechs calculations
Issuers and peg
IssuerMechanismSupplyShare30dPricePegStatus
Source: DefiLlama, Kraken; Kintechs calculations

Exchanges · reported reserves

Assets held in wallets disclosed by centralised exchanges. Concentration measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index across all reporting exchanges.

Reported reserves
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Exchanges reporting
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Concentration HHI
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Largest share
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BTC perp OI / market cap
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Reserves by exchange
Share of reported reservesSource: DefiLlama; Kintechs calculations
Largest exchanges
ExchangeReservesShare1d7dStatus
Source: DefiLlama; Kintechs calculations

Macro linkages

Rolling 90-day correlation of daily BTC returns with US equities, the dollar and 10-year Treasury yields.

BTC correlation with macro assets rolling 90 days
S&P 500US dollarUS 10Y yieldSource: FRED, Coinbase; Kintechs calculations
Macro series
SeriesLastBTC corr. 90dAs of
Source: FRED, Coinbase; Kintechs calculations

On-chain activity

BTC hash rate, EH/s
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BTC active addresses
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BTC transactions
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ETH active addresses
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ETH transactions
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Bitcoin hash rate
EH/s, dailySource: Coin Metrics Community
Active addresses thousands
BTCETHSource: Coin Metrics Community